Tuesday 20 October
Top stories
Updated
The rundown
Today in 60 seconds
MajorOIL
Brent back above $110 on Hormuz and Saudi attacks
Oil near $110 feeds inflation and squeezes growth, and it lands as investors are already pulling money out of AI stocks. A trader has to weigh a supply shock against a risk-off equity move.
Brent crude$110+upfive-month highMajorUK JOBS
UK jobless rate falls to 4.7%, backing a BoE hike
Falling joblessness and firmer pay make it harder for the Bank of England to look past inflation, which supports sterling and raises the risk of higher UK rates.
UK unemployment rate4.7%downvs 5.0% forecast, 4.9% priorMajorUS EQUITIES
US stocks rebound as dip buyers return to AI and chips
AI and chip stocks now drive the direction of US indices. A bounce after a sharp sell-off tests whether buyers still trust the earnings story, and Meta’s results this week are the next check.
Nasdaq 100, Monday+1.9%upafter Nasdaq’s 4.5% weekly fallMajorUK RATES
UK data could seal a BoE hike, with CPI seen at 3.4%
With a November hike nearly fully priced, this week’s data decide how far the Bank goes after it, and that path feeds straight into gilts, the pound and the Chancellor’s Budget headroom on 28 October.
Chance of a 5 Nov BoE hike, priced~90%upto 4.00% from 3.75%
Latest
- CANADA RATESCanada CPI hits 3.1% as hike bets build for next week
- GOLDGold stays lower as oil-led inflation clouds Fed path
- GULF RISKSaudi Arabia postpones FII investor event to 2027
- CREDITCoreWeave’s default swaps hit a record as the AI sell-off reaches credit
- MajorOILOil eases from $110 after Trump waives new Russia sanctions
- MajorUS MARKETSAI sell-off sends money into Treasuries as Nasdaq sheds 4.5%
- JAPANJGB 10y eases to 2.90% as Ueda and Takaichi face parliament
- CHINAChina grows 4.5% in Q3; yuan hits strongest since 2022