4 weeks 6 months 12 months The past 4 weeks · 20 Sep 2026 – 18 Oct 2026
Long yields hit multi-decade highs in early October, then rallied as Fed hike bets slid to December. The hikes are mostly priced: markets have pushed the next Fed and BoJ moves from October to December, and the fight is over timing and term premium, the extra yield for lending long. The long end ran to multi-decade highs in early October, then rallied as auctions cleared well and money rotated out of stocks into bonds. France showed that fiscal risk now trades as a spread, with no ECB backstop behind it. The UK Budget on 28 Oct and four central bank decisions between 28 Oct and 5 Nov are the next tests.
Drill the past 4 weeks 8 mixed questions across every theme · about 2 min · 0/4 themes finished 4 themes Building US
Fed: probably not October, probably December The Fed’s next hike has slipped from October to December: the front end has priced out the timing, not the hike.
2y yields lower 10–30y yields little changed Curve steeper Peaking US · UK · Japan
The long end peaks, then rallies Long yields hit multi-decade highs in early October, then strong auctions and a rotation out of stocks turned the sell-off into a round trip.
2y yields mixed 10–30y yields mixed Curve mixed Building Japan
BoJ: a pause in October, December in play The BoJ is pausing, not stopping: October is priced out, December is still in play, and the JGB curve has bull-flattened.
2y yields lower 10–30y yields lower Curve flatter Building Euro area
France’s spread test: OATs above Italy, no ECB backstop France now borrows above Italy and the ECB won’t backstop it, so the OAT–Bund spread trades on French politics and ratings.
2y yields mixed 10–30y yields mixed Curve mixed Rates by country
Policy paths Policy rates over the past year. Every chart spans the same range, so moves compare at a glance. Shaded: the past 4 weeks.
US · Federal Reserve
Fed funds target range (upper bound charted)
3.75–4.00%
unchanged in 4 weeks
Federal Reserve decisions in the past year Date Change Rate after 29 Oct 2025 −25bp 4.0% 10 Dec 2025 −25bp 3.75% 28 Jan 2026 unchanged 3.75% 18 Mar 2026 unchanged 3.75% 29 Apr 2026 unchanged 3.75% 17 Jun 2026 unchanged 3.75% 29 Jul 2026 unchanged 3.75% 16 Sep 2026 +25bp 4.0%
Next 28 Oct · about 15% odds of a hike; December about 89% Treasuries 2y 4.71%10y 5.08%30y 5.43%(16 Oct)
Cut twice in late 2025, then hiked in September for the first time since 2023. Markets see the next move in December rather than October after Warsh declined to signal one.
UK · Bank of England
Bank Rate
3.75%
unchanged in 4 weeks
Bank of England decisions in the past year Date Change Rate after 6 Nov 2025 unchanged 4.0% 18 Dec 2025 −25bp 3.75% 5 Feb 2026 unchanged 3.75% 19 Mar 2026 unchanged 3.75% 30 Apr 2026 unchanged 3.75% 18 Jun 2026 unchanged 3.75% 30 Jul 2026 unchanged 3.75% 17 Sep 2026 unchanged 3.75%
Next 5 Nov · a hike about 83–91% priced Gilts 10y 5.38%(16 Oct)
On hold at 3.75% since December, with the dissenters now voting to hike rather than cut. A November hike is priced, a week after the 28 October Budget.
Euro area · European Central Bank
Deposit facility rate
2.50%
unchanged in 4 weeks
European Central Bank decisions in the past year Date Change Rate after 18 Dec 2025 unchanged 2.0% 5 Feb 2026 unchanged 2.0% 19 Mar 2026 unchanged 2.0% 30 Apr 2026 unchanged 2.0% 11 Jun 2026 +25bp 2.25% 23 Jul 2026 unchanged 2.25% 10 Sep 2026 +25bp 2.5%
Next 29 Oct · a hike seen as likelier in December Bunds 10y 3.42%30y 3.79%(16 Oct)
Two hikes since June took the deposit rate to 2.50%. Lagarde sees no second-round effects yet, and money markets lean towards a December move rather than October.
Japan · Bank of Japan
Short-term policy rate
1.25%
unchanged in 4 weeks
Bank of Japan decisions in the past year Date Change Rate after 30 Oct 2025 unchanged 0.5% 19 Dec 2025 +25bp 0.75% 23 Jan 2026 unchanged 0.75% 19 Mar 2026 unchanged 0.75% 28 Apr 2026 unchanged 0.75% 16 Jun 2026 +25bp 1.0% 31 Jul 2026 unchanged 1.0% 18 Sep 2026 +25bp 1.25%
Next 30 Oct · about 10% or less for a hike; December about 75–88% JGBs 2y 1.92%10y 3.01%30y 4.04%(13 Oct)
Three hikes in a year took the rate to its highest since 1995. Sources say the BoJ leans against an October move, but Ueda says rates will keep rising.
Themes are written by the JuniorTrader desk from the sources each one links. Trade ideas are educational expressions of a view — how a desk might position — not recommendations. Market levels are as reported on the dates shown.